A slightly belated prediction for 2016: it’s as likely as not that by
the year’s end David Cameron will no longer be prime minister. Well,
less a prediction that a statement of probability. It rests on a series
of further predictions:
1. Cameron goes to the European Council meeting and claims major concessions.
2. On the strength of these, Cameron recommends a ‘Remain’ vote in the In/Out referendum.
3. Cameron’s concessions are widely derided by the Europhobic right in his own party and beyond.
4. Several Cabinet ministers, as well as Boris Johnson, come out for ‘Leave’.
5. Cameron schedules the vote for September..
2. On the strength of these, Cameron recommends a ‘Remain’ vote in the In/Out referendum.
3. Cameron’s concessions are widely derided by the Europhobic right in his own party and beyond.
4. Several Cabinet ministers, as well as Boris Johnson, come out for ‘Leave’.
5. Cameron schedules the vote for September..
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